Success vs Luck: How Much Control Do We Have?

Some people work hard their entire lives and never reach the top, while others seem to stumble into success without trying. It’s easy to say that talent and persistence win, but is that true?

There’s an ongoing debate about how much success is earned and how much is sheer luck. The truth sits somewhere in the middle, though not in equal parts. Understanding where skill ends and luck begins changes how we see the world. It affects careers, investments, and even personal choices.

The Invisible Hand of Luck

Success stories often follow a familiar script—determination, discipline, and relentless effort. 

Along with determination and everything else mentioned above, success stories often involve a bit of luck. Although good luck on your side is great when playing real-time roulette, if you’re into something with bigger implications and stakes, it’s best to minimise relying purely on luck. 

However, there’s no denying how perceived luck plays a big role towards success. 

A bright student earns a scholarship and builds a successful career. Another, just as intelligent and hardworking, never gets the same opportunity. Without that financial break, their path is filled with obstacles. Two startups launch with the same idea. 

One finds the right investor, lands key media coverage, and scales fast. The other fades into obscurity, not because it lacked innovation but because it never got the correct exposure.

Hard work matters. But opportunity decides who gets ahead. That’s an uncomfortable truth.

Some people are born into stable families, go to good schools, and have connections that open doors. Others start with nothing. For example, some players walk into a casino with a big bankroll, while others are down to their last chips.

Then there’s timing. In business, success depends on when you enter the market. Some people bought Bitcoin early and became millionaires. Others jumped in late and lost everything. It has the same action, different timing, and completely different results.

Even the most hardworking people need a lucky break. Skill helps, but it’s like playing a casino game with bad odds—you can be great at it, but if the game isn’t in your favour, you won’t win.

That’s not to say success is all random. In life, people who work hard and put themselves in the right places increase their chances of getting lucky. You can’t control luck, but you can control how often you take a shot.

Can You Control Outcomes?

Some things rely almost entirely on skill. A chess grandmaster wins because they’ve mastered the game. A marathon runner wins through training and endurance. No dice rolls decide their fate.

Then there are fields like investing or entertainment, where luck plays a massive role. A musician might spend years perfecting their craft, but they stay unknown if the right person never hears their work. There’s a simple test to see how much luck is involved. 

Ask yourself, “Can I lose on purpose?” If the answer is yes, skill dominates. If you could do everything right and still fail, luck has a more significant say.

Why Skill Alone Isn’t Enough

There’s a reason the most successful people often acknowledge luck. Bill Gates had access to computers before most people knew what they were. Warren Buffett grew up in a household that encouraged investing. J.K. Rowling’s manuscript landed on the right publisher’s desk at the right time.

That’s not to say they didn’t earn their success. Gates was brilliant. Buffett made wise investments. Rowling wrote a story that resonated with millions. But plenty of intelligent, talented writers never get published. Plenty of brilliant investors never catch a lucky market cycle.

Skill builds the foundation. Luck decides how far it goes.

Why The World Feels More Random Than Ever

In sports, the best athletes used to win by a considerable margin. Today, the difference between first and second place is often a fraction of a second. The same thing happens in business and investing. As people get better at what they do, small advantages become game-changers.

That’s why luck matters even more now. The difference between a successful entrepreneur and one who fails might be meeting the right investor at the right time. Two people with the same skills can have wildly different results based on a single event.

Tilting The Odds

If luck plays such a significant role, what can you do? The best approach is to create more chances for it to work in your favour.

For skill-driven fields like sports or business, practice is everything. The more you refine your craft, the better you get. If success is 80% skill, improving that skill gives you the best shot.

For fields where luck dominates, the approach changes. You can’t force good luck but can set yourself up to take advantage of it. Entrepreneurs who launch multiple businesses increase their chances that one will succeed. Investors who spread their bets don’t rely on a single lucky break. Writers who publish regularly have more chances to get discovered.

The strategy is simple: when skill matters, train harder. When luck matters, take more shots.

Final Thoughts

Success isn’t just about hard work. It isn’t just about luck, either. It’s a mix of both, and the balance depends on what you’re trying to achieve. Skill gives you the ability to perform. Luck determines whether the right doors open. The best approach? Keep improving at your work, and create as many opportunities as possible. The more doors you knock on, the higher the chance that one of them opens.